China has the resources and technology--some of it obtained quasi-legally and illegally--to build a fifth-generation fighter, say U.S. Air Force and intelligence officials. But Beijing's aerospace industry may be missing key skills needed for it to match the performance of advanced, Western-built combat aircraft.
What neither Beijing nor the Western defense community yet knows is whether Chinese technicians can generate the systems engineering and integration capabilities required to actually build in large production numbers and arm advanced aircraft with features similar to those of the aging B-2 and F-22 or the newer but less stealthy F-35 (AW&ST Nov.16, p. 26).
"You need a combination of the right shape, structural design, surface coatings, aerodynamic performance and flight control system," says a U.S. Air Force official. "It's not magic, but there's still a lot of art in it."
It remains to be determined if the People's Liberation Army Air Force (Plaaf) will pursue a fighter design optimized for low observability or how much it will be willing to trade in terms of performance, supportability and delivery schedule.
The requirement--dubbed J-XX by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence in 1997--may well seek a more "balanced" approach to stealth, likely focusing on front-quadrant radar-cross-section reduction and the use of reapplicable coatings, rather than pursuing an all-aspect design. A twin-engine delta-canard concept has previously been suggested to be the general design approach.
While China is unlikely to field a platform with F-22-like capabilities within 10 years--as claimed by the Plaaf's deputy chief, Gen. He Weirong--a new fighter is in development and may soon make its first flight, say Chinese aerospace industry and U.S. intelligence officials.
The U.S. intelligence official, a veteran analyst of China's airpower, summarizes his view of the nation's access to advanced technologies. "Between legal, quasi-legal [diverted] and espionage-based tech transfer, I'm sure China has obtained most of the data available on how we build our stealthy aircraft structures and the materials involved," he says. "They also have taken full advantage of our open patent system, our open engineering undergrad and grad schools, our publish-or-perish academic promotion process and the ease with which an integrated, centralized [government] can thwart artificial, social-democratic distinctions between military, police, civil and commercial data."
Aging F-22 and B-2 designs are another factor. They have given Chinese researchers more than 20 years to chase down those technologies. The B-2 has already gone through its first service-life-extension program.
"[With] what they've gotten from us, Japan, [South Korea], Russia and the European Union, they have access to all they need data-wise," the intelligence official says. "Their only limitations are investment cash and the ability to work out production process engineering and integration, which we still do better than anyone. [Those skills] really reflect corporate culture and learning curve more than anything readily documented, although ISO 9000/9001/9002 and similar software documentation standardization are making that easier to steal, too."
China's J-10 strike fighter, which has an F-16-like capability, is considered the country's best indigenous effort so far in terms of engines, avionics and aerodynamic performance. It began large-scale service in 2006. China's military aircraft are profiting from knowledge about commercial composite-structure production garnered from building components for Boeing airliners and space materials.
The original J-10 work drew heavily on the Israeli Lavi program--Tel Aviv has generally proved a valuable source of technology for Beijing--and has benefited from Russian support.
Beijing also has used the J-11B development of the Russian Su-27 Flanker as the platform to introduce indigenous avionics, fire-control radar, weapons and powerplant. Further iterations of the systems produced for the J-11B may be earmarked for the J-XX.
The J-11B is designed to carry the PL-12 medium-range active radar-guided missile, rather than the export model of the Russian R-77 (AA-12 Adder). The PL-12 development reflects the overall improvement in China's national guided-weapons technology base, even if the program had significant Russian input.
"Right now, the only arms race China is really facing is with India, and [Beijing is] winning," the intelligence official says.
While that contest has no direct impact on the U.S., at least some Pentagon planners believe it will accelerate China's large-force, war-making capability, while the U.S. is focusing its spending and technology development on limited-war and insurgency-type conflicts.
"In my view, we're wasting billions on slow- and low-flying MC-12s [surveillance aircraft], MQ-1/-9 [remotely piloted aircraft], C-27J [light transports] and less-than-world-class, lowest-common-denominator, design-to-price [F-35] JSF," the intelligence official says.
A veteran combat pilot with insight into the F-22 program says building an advanced fighter, even if it did not match the F-22's or F-35's performance, could be a serious threat to the U.S. stealth fleet if the new aircraft are built in large enough numbers to overcome an allied force through sheer attrition.
"Those fourth-generation fighters, when pitted against 187 F22s in large numbers, will eventually wear [the stealth fighters] down," says an aerospace industry official. "They only carry eight air-to-air missiles. They don't have to match Raptor capabilities if they build an advanced fighter in F-35 numbers."
It would not be considered an impossible technological leap for China to build an F-35-like fighter with some stealth capabilities in 10 years. "They could throw a lot of resources at it," a senior U.S. Air Force official says. "But we've yet to see a real organic design from China. So far, they've leveraged Russian or Israeli technology. They don't have a lot of radar engineering capability, nor experience in integrating a complete structure. That's the big question.
"You can paste on some [signature-lowering] capabilities, but changing a very large target to a large target doesn't buy you too much operational advantage," the Air Force official says. "You need very small stealth-signature numbers."
The F-22 had an all-aspect requirement of -40 dBsm., while the F-35 came in at -30 dBsm. with some gaps in coverage.
The idea that the J-10 will serve as a technological springboard is considered unlikely.
"I believe the Chinese have a difficult road if their design is tied to the J-10," he says. "As you know, significantly reduced signature requires more then coatings. The J-10 has many features which may produce the desired aerodynamic effects but would be a negative for signature reduction. I am sure they can somewhat reduce the signature with a few design tweaks and coatings, but the operational relevance would be questionable.
"They can certainly refine their composite-structure competency, and basic [stealth] coatings are widely known and available," the Air Force official says. "The milestone will be when we see more refined shaping."
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Turkey displays Chinese built Ballistic Missiles
Turkey has displayed the first of 200 Chinese B611 ballistic missiles, that it is building under license. The B611 is a two ton missiles with a half ton warhead and a range of 280 kilometers. The missile is carried, and launched, in an 8x8 cross country truck. Some trucks are designed to carry two missiles. The B611 uses a solid fuel motor, and its basic guidance system will land the warhead within 150 meters of the aiming point. Using GPS for guidance will improve that to less than 30 meters.
US and China to cooperate on ARJ21 commuter jet
Chinese Jet Gets Boost From Obama
One of the few concrete signs of cooperation to emerge from this week's U.S.-China summit could boost Beijing's drive to become a global aircraft maker.
President Barack Obama pledged Tuesday to push for closer technical collaboration and eventual U.S. safety approval for China's ARJ21 commuter jet. That amounts to both a symbolic and practical step to counter Beijing's growing frustration with U.S. aviation policy and U.S. restrictions on the purchase of certain technologies.
The high-profile U.S. initiative is especially significant because China's own safety regulators are still a year or more away from approving the 70-to-100-passenger aircraft being developed by Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd., or Comac.
But signaling Washington's desire to provide technical support and regulatory certainty down the road also raises questions about both the overseas role and the independence of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which has taken more of an arm's-length approach toward certifying the safety of China's future airliners.
Over the years, the FAA has forged close ties with Chinese carriers and aviation regulators through a multitude of joint safety efforts, data sharing and training programs. Hundreds of Beijing officials, airline managers, pilots and controllers have visited their U.S. counterparts. Partly as a result, the country's commercial-aviation accident rate—China has gone nearly five years without a major fatal crash—is by some measures better than that of the U.S.
But when it comes to regulatory approval, the FAA has tried to maintain greater distance. Before Mr. Obama's announcement, for example, FAA representatives in China pulled back from helping Comac teams developing the ARJ21 because of concern that such assistance might be considered a conflict of interest when other parts of the agency gear up to determine whether the plane meets U.S. safety standards. Nearly half the plane's parts come from the U.S. An FAA spokeswoman declined to comment on President Obama's announcement or what it means for future FAA steps.
So far, Western interest in buying the ARJ21 has been limited. At the Zhuhai air show in southern China last year, Comac announced that its first overseas order had come from General Electric Co. GE, which is supplying the engines, agreed to buy five of the regional jets with an option for 20 more, in a deal that could amount to $750 million. But GE also said that it planned to lease all the planes inside China. FAA certification is critical if Beijing hopes to attract other foreign buyers, and some U.S. officials predict it could take as long as two years. Currently undergoing flight tests, the plane has taken about twice as long to develop as its backers initially projected.
In some ways, however, the current discussions may be more of a prelude to broader commercial and regulatory cooperation on a larger Comac-designed jet, the more than 160-seat C919. Slated for certification no earlier than 2016, that model would compete directly with the two leading global airliner suppliers, Boeing Co and Airbus, a unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. Though still in early design, Chinese officials have said the C919 should have operating costs 10% below those of comparable Western jetliners
Safety and business considerations aren't the only reason for U.S.-Chinese friction over aerospace collaboration. Honeywell International Inc. has struck a tentative deal to provide avionics and terrain-avoidance warning systems to Chinese customers. But one glitch, according to Honeywell officials, is that Chinese authorities insist that the updated digital maps Honeywell sells outside China can't include data about sensitive facilities and man-made obstacles throughout the country
One of the few concrete signs of cooperation to emerge from this week's U.S.-China summit could boost Beijing's drive to become a global aircraft maker.
President Barack Obama pledged Tuesday to push for closer technical collaboration and eventual U.S. safety approval for China's ARJ21 commuter jet. That amounts to both a symbolic and practical step to counter Beijing's growing frustration with U.S. aviation policy and U.S. restrictions on the purchase of certain technologies.
The high-profile U.S. initiative is especially significant because China's own safety regulators are still a year or more away from approving the 70-to-100-passenger aircraft being developed by Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd., or Comac.
But signaling Washington's desire to provide technical support and regulatory certainty down the road also raises questions about both the overseas role and the independence of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which has taken more of an arm's-length approach toward certifying the safety of China's future airliners.
Over the years, the FAA has forged close ties with Chinese carriers and aviation regulators through a multitude of joint safety efforts, data sharing and training programs. Hundreds of Beijing officials, airline managers, pilots and controllers have visited their U.S. counterparts. Partly as a result, the country's commercial-aviation accident rate—China has gone nearly five years without a major fatal crash—is by some measures better than that of the U.S.
But when it comes to regulatory approval, the FAA has tried to maintain greater distance. Before Mr. Obama's announcement, for example, FAA representatives in China pulled back from helping Comac teams developing the ARJ21 because of concern that such assistance might be considered a conflict of interest when other parts of the agency gear up to determine whether the plane meets U.S. safety standards. Nearly half the plane's parts come from the U.S. An FAA spokeswoman declined to comment on President Obama's announcement or what it means for future FAA steps.
So far, Western interest in buying the ARJ21 has been limited. At the Zhuhai air show in southern China last year, Comac announced that its first overseas order had come from General Electric Co. GE, which is supplying the engines, agreed to buy five of the regional jets with an option for 20 more, in a deal that could amount to $750 million. But GE also said that it planned to lease all the planes inside China. FAA certification is critical if Beijing hopes to attract other foreign buyers, and some U.S. officials predict it could take as long as two years. Currently undergoing flight tests, the plane has taken about twice as long to develop as its backers initially projected.
In some ways, however, the current discussions may be more of a prelude to broader commercial and regulatory cooperation on a larger Comac-designed jet, the more than 160-seat C919. Slated for certification no earlier than 2016, that model would compete directly with the two leading global airliner suppliers, Boeing Co and Airbus, a unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. Though still in early design, Chinese officials have said the C919 should have operating costs 10% below those of comparable Western jetliners
Safety and business considerations aren't the only reason for U.S.-Chinese friction over aerospace collaboration. Honeywell International Inc. has struck a tentative deal to provide avionics and terrain-avoidance warning systems to Chinese customers. But one glitch, according to Honeywell officials, is that Chinese authorities insist that the updated digital maps Honeywell sells outside China can't include data about sensitive facilities and man-made obstacles throughout the country
Peru to buy MBT-2000 tanks from China
Five MBT-2000 tanks made in China started yesterday's Military Parade, led by the Army General (EP) Richard Pitot Guzman.
The MBT-2000 is one of the models that Peruvian Army is testing with the aim of replacing the old T-55 bought from the former USSR during the 60s and 70s; but it was reported that another three models are currently under evaluation.
However, the MBT-2000s that participated in the parade were decorated with all the General Pitot's military insignias, and this fact has created a great controversy in Peru.
While the Army states that the technical evaluations are not over yet and that the presence of these tanks was only “part of an exhibition,” Defense Minister Rafael Rey says that the Government “is close to a deal" to buy an undetermined number of tanks from China.
But the controversy is just starting. According to La Republica, these tanks have already been tested in July, by a technical commission that traveled to China, and determined, in a report signed by General Jorge Vega Yáñez, that the tanks did not meet all the specialized requirements; especially in regards to defeating the Chilean Leopard 2A4, as well as shooting 125mm missiles.
Norinco, the manufacturer, was allegedly in conditions to meet all the Peruvian requirements, but in two years' time.
Rafael Rey said that Peru is purchasing these tanks because “our current operative tanks are in pretty bad conditions.”
Indonesian warships to be equipped with Chinese-made missiles
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - The Indonesian Navy`s warships will be equipped with missiles made in China, Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Agus Suhartono said here on Monday.
"We will continue to procure C-802 missiles from China after we tested the weapon with good results,` he said adding that the Indonesian Navy was also negotiating with China to obtain C-705 missiles that were more slender in shape.
"Both types of missile will be added to the armament of of the navy`s fast patrol boats and Van Speijk warships," Agus said.
He said the navy would increase the combat capabilities of its Van Speijk and fast patrol boats by integrating their armament systems with weaponry from China.
"We are still unable to make missiles domestically. But fortunately, state shipbuilding firm PT PAL already has the technology to integrate weapon systems imported from abroad with those already in place on our warships," he said.
The navy chief admitted with limited budget for his department, his officials would continue making a priority scale on the procurement of weaponry system.
"Our main priority now is security in sea border areas and the outer islands of Indonesia," he said adding that the navy would also replace some 27 of its warships with newer types and better combat capabilities.
Agus Suhartono had previously said Indonesia`s western waters were prone to various maritime crimes such as smuggling, human trafficking and poaching.
"The sea crimes are not the only problems we have in the western waters. In these areas we also have border problems with India, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia," the navy chief said.
He said that in order to maintain security in the area, the navy conducted routine patrols in the Indonesian western waters. It had maintained a joint patrols with its counterparts from India, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.
As a result, the maritime crime rate in the western waters had dropped , particularly in the Malacca Strait.
"We will continue to procure C-802 missiles from China after we tested the weapon with good results,` he said adding that the Indonesian Navy was also negotiating with China to obtain C-705 missiles that were more slender in shape.
"Both types of missile will be added to the armament of of the navy`s fast patrol boats and Van Speijk warships," Agus said.
He said the navy would increase the combat capabilities of its Van Speijk and fast patrol boats by integrating their armament systems with weaponry from China.
"We are still unable to make missiles domestically. But fortunately, state shipbuilding firm PT PAL already has the technology to integrate weapon systems imported from abroad with those already in place on our warships," he said.
The navy chief admitted with limited budget for his department, his officials would continue making a priority scale on the procurement of weaponry system.
"Our main priority now is security in sea border areas and the outer islands of Indonesia," he said adding that the navy would also replace some 27 of its warships with newer types and better combat capabilities.
Agus Suhartono had previously said Indonesia`s western waters were prone to various maritime crimes such as smuggling, human trafficking and poaching.
"The sea crimes are not the only problems we have in the western waters. In these areas we also have border problems with India, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia," the navy chief said.
He said that in order to maintain security in the area, the navy conducted routine patrols in the Indonesian western waters. It had maintained a joint patrols with its counterparts from India, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.
As a result, the maritime crime rate in the western waters had dropped , particularly in the Malacca Strait.
China to launch a second lunar probe next year
Another spacecraft launch likely in 2010 to prepare for space lab
China plans to launch Chang'e-2, the country's second lunar probe, at the end of 2010, space authorities announced yesterday.
The design and production of Chang'e-2 is complete, and the lunar orbiter is undergoing ground tests, the State Administration of Science Technology and Industry for National Defense said yesterday in a news release.
Second moon probe next year
Chang'e-2 is expected to test the soft-landing technological capability for the Chang'e-3 and provide high-resolution images of the landing area, the administration said.
"Progress on six key technologies of Chang'e-2 has been made, including the lunar capture, orbit control and research on high-resolution stereo camera," the administration's spokesman said.
Ye Peijian, chief designer of the nation's first lunar probe, had told China Daily earlier that the launch was expected in October.
The administration said that Chang'e-3, the country's lunar lander and rover, is also well on the way toward liftoff. The project is now in the prototype stage.
Chang'e-2 and Chang'e-3 are part of the second phase of the country's lunar exploration program, which consists of three stages - "orbiting", "landing" and "returning".
Ye said earlier that Chang'e-3 is likely to be launched before 2013. The country's first lunar probe, Chang'e-1, was launched in October 2007 and ended its 16-month mission on March 1 this year.
Meanwhile, China's manned space project is also likely to see a breakthrough next year, a top scientist said.
Qi Faren, chief designer of the Shenzhou spacecraft, told Guangzhou Daily on Sunday that Tiangong-1, or Heavenly Palace-1, a spacecraft that will test docking technology and prepare for the future construction of space laboratories, will be launched by the end of next year at the earliest.
According to the official website of China's manned space program, www.cmse.gov.cn, the launch date of Tiangong-1 is set between late 2010 and early 2011.
Within two years of the launch of Tiangong-I, China will launch Shenzhou-VIII, Shenzhou-IX and Shenzhou-X spaceships, to dock with Tiangong-1, the website said.
Two space laboratories, Tiangong-II and Tiangong-III, will follow, and China aims to build its own space station by the year 2020, the website said.
China became the third nation - after the US and Russia - to send people into space when Yang Liwei went into orbit aboard the spaceship Shenzhou-V on Oct 15, 2003. Three other astronauts were sent to space in Shenzhou-VII and carried out the country's first space walk in September 2008.
Shen Liping, deputy chief designer of China's manned space program, was quoted by Guangzhou Daily as saying on Sunday that China's first woman astronaut will be able to fly to outer space sooner than the targeted 10 years.
China plans to launch Chang'e-2, the country's second lunar probe, at the end of 2010, space authorities announced yesterday.
The design and production of Chang'e-2 is complete, and the lunar orbiter is undergoing ground tests, the State Administration of Science Technology and Industry for National Defense said yesterday in a news release.
Second moon probe next year
Chang'e-2 is expected to test the soft-landing technological capability for the Chang'e-3 and provide high-resolution images of the landing area, the administration said.
"Progress on six key technologies of Chang'e-2 has been made, including the lunar capture, orbit control and research on high-resolution stereo camera," the administration's spokesman said.
Ye Peijian, chief designer of the nation's first lunar probe, had told China Daily earlier that the launch was expected in October.
The administration said that Chang'e-3, the country's lunar lander and rover, is also well on the way toward liftoff. The project is now in the prototype stage.
Chang'e-2 and Chang'e-3 are part of the second phase of the country's lunar exploration program, which consists of three stages - "orbiting", "landing" and "returning".
Ye said earlier that Chang'e-3 is likely to be launched before 2013. The country's first lunar probe, Chang'e-1, was launched in October 2007 and ended its 16-month mission on March 1 this year.
Meanwhile, China's manned space project is also likely to see a breakthrough next year, a top scientist said.
Qi Faren, chief designer of the Shenzhou spacecraft, told Guangzhou Daily on Sunday that Tiangong-1, or Heavenly Palace-1, a spacecraft that will test docking technology and prepare for the future construction of space laboratories, will be launched by the end of next year at the earliest.
According to the official website of China's manned space program, www.cmse.gov.cn, the launch date of Tiangong-1 is set between late 2010 and early 2011.
Within two years of the launch of Tiangong-I, China will launch Shenzhou-VIII, Shenzhou-IX and Shenzhou-X spaceships, to dock with Tiangong-1, the website said.
Two space laboratories, Tiangong-II and Tiangong-III, will follow, and China aims to build its own space station by the year 2020, the website said.
China became the third nation - after the US and Russia - to send people into space when Yang Liwei went into orbit aboard the spaceship Shenzhou-V on Oct 15, 2003. Three other astronauts were sent to space in Shenzhou-VII and carried out the country's first space walk in September 2008.
Shen Liping, deputy chief designer of China's manned space program, was quoted by Guangzhou Daily as saying on Sunday that China's first woman astronaut will be able to fly to outer space sooner than the targeted 10 years.
China Seeks A Naval Base West Of India
Chinese admirals are pushing their government to help them establish a support base near the Persian Gulf. The immediate need is for an easier way to supply the Chinese warships working with the anti-piracy patrol off Somalia. This could be done by negotiating basing rights, where some Chinese naval personnel would set up shop at a port in the area, and make arrangements for resupplying and repairing any Chinese warships operating in the area, as well as allowing the Chinese warships to tie up in the local port for extended periods of time. Such arrangements are basically a commercial undertaking, but must be negotiated government-to-government because military forces are involved. Many nations have such arrangements in the region, particularly the Persian Gulf. Chinese sailors coming ashore would basically be treated like tourists, and subject to local law. This can get sticky if sailors misbehave, as sailors sometimes do, and get arrested. Many sailors on Chinese warships have access to classified information, and no navy likes having their sailors under the control of a foreign government. It's feared that the police investigation will include agents from a local, or foreign, intelligence, agency.
Thus there is a tendency for the basing rights to evolve into a naval base, complete with a "status of forces" agreement which allows the Chinese navy to discipline misbehaving sailors, in cooperation with local authorities (so the sailors don't get away with anything, especially in the eyes of the locals.) Allowing a foreign navy to establish themselves on your territory is a touchy subject, and must be handled carefully. The Chinese would be expected to be generous and useful guests. But, at the same time, the full time presence of the Chinese navy would mean a military relationship with the local host, and a willingness to help the host out in the event of any diplomatic trouble or military threat. This works both ways, as a major rationale for a Chinese naval base in the region is to protect the growing traffic in sea traffic of raw materials headed for China, and manufactured goods coming in from China. Everyone has an interest in insuring that this sea traffic moves unhindered by pirates, or any other manmade threat. Well, almost everyone.
India is not enthusiastic about a Chinese naval base in the region. India sees China as a military, diplomatic and economic competitor. India sees itself as the master of the Indian Ocean, and China as an unwelcome interloper. Thus any Chinese effort to establish a naval base in the Western Indian Ocean would be opposed by India, and many existing Indian allies in the area.
Thus there is a tendency for the basing rights to evolve into a naval base, complete with a "status of forces" agreement which allows the Chinese navy to discipline misbehaving sailors, in cooperation with local authorities (so the sailors don't get away with anything, especially in the eyes of the locals.) Allowing a foreign navy to establish themselves on your territory is a touchy subject, and must be handled carefully. The Chinese would be expected to be generous and useful guests. But, at the same time, the full time presence of the Chinese navy would mean a military relationship with the local host, and a willingness to help the host out in the event of any diplomatic trouble or military threat. This works both ways, as a major rationale for a Chinese naval base in the region is to protect the growing traffic in sea traffic of raw materials headed for China, and manufactured goods coming in from China. Everyone has an interest in insuring that this sea traffic moves unhindered by pirates, or any other manmade threat. Well, almost everyone.
India is not enthusiastic about a Chinese naval base in the region. India sees China as a military, diplomatic and economic competitor. India sees itself as the master of the Indian Ocean, and China as an unwelcome interloper. Thus any Chinese effort to establish a naval base in the Western Indian Ocean would be opposed by India, and many existing Indian allies in the area.
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